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Sensitivity analysis

By making our dependencies transparent, we gain insight into the risks that are transferred within the chain. This enables Schiphol Group to anticipate chain reactions at an early stage.

We do this in various ways, for example by integrating sensitivity analyses for key value drivers in our Tactical Plan 2014-2016 and Strategic Plan 2013-2017. This helps us to determine the impact of key risks.

The table below outlines the sensitivity level for several of Schiphol Group's key value drivers, specifying their most important risk factors.

Risks

Value

Baseline
value for 2013

Change

Effect

Impact on:

Assumptions

A, B

Number of passengers at Schiphol

 52.6 million

+/- 1%

10.7 million euros

Total turnover

Impact on revenues from airport charges and retail and catering sales: based on the assumption of a stable OD/transfer passenger ratio and unchanged passenger spending and costs

A, B, H

Number of flights

425,565 

1 day without flights

  2.9 million euros

Total turnover

Based on average airport charges and passenger spending in the terminal

A, B, D

Revenue from airport charges

  816 million euros

 +/- 1%

8.2 million euros

Total turnover

 

A, B,

Average spending per departing passenger

  15.89 euros

 +/- 1%

1.0 million euros 

Total turnover

Unchanged passenger numbers

E, H

Operating expenses

  798 million euros

 +/- 1%

8.0 million euros

Operating result

Baseline value is comprised of total operating expenses, not including impairment losses

C

Net initial yield from offices and industrial buildings, not including land

854 million euros

 -10%

+10%

78 million euros

94 million euros

Value of real estate

A 10% rise/decline (as at year-end 2013) in the net initial yield from real estate properties, applied to the value of the current real estate portfolio of 854 million euros